Strong pent-up demand for leisure travel, opening up of international and corporate travel, and wide vaccination coverage should catapult the revenue of the Indian hotel industry by 45% from a decadal low last fiscal, and almost match the pre-pandemic (fiscal 2020) levels.

The rebound in revenue and leaner cost structures can drive up operating profitability by 200-400 basis points this fiscal, compared with fiscal 2020, a Crisil Ratings analysis¹ of hotels with an aggregate 30,000 rooms across categories indicates as much.

Says Nitesh Jain, Director, Crisil Ratings, “After the second wave of Covid-19, the average room rent (ARR) had reached 85-90% and occupancy 80-85% of the pre-pandemic levels, before the third wave impaired the last quarter. To be sure, Covid-19 cases are sprouting again, but with no strict lockdowns and significant — and widening — vaccination coverage, both ARR and occupancy should recover from this quarter. But the pace of recovery will vary by the category of hotels.”

For properties in tourist destinations such as Udaipur and Goa, which lean towards leisure travel, ARR and occupancy had surpassed the pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter of last fiscal itself, on demand for staycations and the wedding season. While international flights have commenced, the flow of inbound tourists — a key user segment — may be slow to pick up. But high pent-up demand from domestic travellers would provide an offset.

The mid-premium and budget segment hotels, with ARR of Rs 3,000-5,000, benefited from upgrades by small and medium enterprise (SME) clients due to hygiene concerns amid the pandemic. This segment saw both, ARR and occupancy recovering to 80-85% of the pre-pandemic levels, and should rebound fully in the first half of this fiscal. Luxury business hotels, which were slower to track back because of their high dependence on corporate travel, should also pick up pace now with offices reopening.

Says Rakshit Kachhal, Associate Director, Crisil Ratings, “Hotels had pruned fixed costs over the past two years by reducing headcount per room, increasing the use of technology in areas such as room service, and cutting down on expenses such as power, sales and promotions, and commissions and discounts. While the rebound in occupancy will mean an increase in some of these costs, hotels will likely hold on to cost efficiency, and the leaner cost structure should help them serve a sharp recovery in profitability. The ability to maintain service standards with leaner cost structures will be a monitorable.”

Improving profitability, along with government support by way of low-cost borrowing facility under the Emergency Line of Credit Guarantee Scheme, will see interest coverage return nearly to the pre-pandemic level of 2.0-2.2 times this fiscal.

However, the debt to equity ratio will remain weak at 1.2 times (0.8 time before the pandemic) as companies loaded up debt and incurred losses during the pandemic.

We expect a sustained recovery will result in a gradual improvement in the sector’s financial leverage over the medium term. While there is a rise in cases of a new variant of Covid-19, the sector remains resilient given people seem more confident of outdoors, especially because of wide vaccination coverage. Any constrains on the economic activity or movement of people will bear watching.

¹Our analysis covers mid-sized to large hotel chains (having more than 3,500 rooms on an average). The pace of recovery is expected to be slower for smaller firms and single properties because of limited financial flexibility and modest sponsor profiles.