Key takeaways

• Crisil now sees India's fiscal 2021 real gross domestic product (GDP) contracting 7.7% compared with a contraction of 9% forecast in September
  
• A faster-than-expected revival in activity in the second quarter, which continues into the festive season, is one of the reasons for the revision. Consistent decline in the overall Covid-19 case load is the other
  
• Inadequate fiscal spending, however,remains a constraint, while the possibility of a second wave of afflictions, uncertainty regarding availability of vaccine, and hiccups in global economic revival due to resurgence of cases, call for caution
  
• In fiscal 2022, GDP growth is expected to spurt to 10%, led by a very weak base and some global ‘rising tide’ effect. We estimate a permanent loss to the economy at ~12% in real GDP terms